by Justin Umali & Renz Dahilig
Time of Transition
In almost all cases, the uprisings were followed by preparations for new elections and a new government.
Francis Domingo from the International Studies department points out that new leaders do not guarantee stability.
In Tunisia, efforts were being made to form a national unity government. According to an article from BBC News, renewed anger on the part of protesters was brought about when then Prime Minister Mohammed Gannouchi revealed the line-up for the new government which was composed of many ministers from the former ruling party. A BBC correspondent in the area says that people wanted assurance from the interim administration that it was ready to address the political and economic needs of the people in a time of transition.
Security forces in Egypt have filled the power vacuum left by President Hosni Mubarak’s abdication and will eventually hand government control to civilians. However, reports show that police-related violence has now become rampant and only a few reforms have been able to push through. Many Egyptians now see the military and the police as the new threat against the democratic reforms.
The Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) set up an interim administration in late 2011 tasked to establish free elections and to draft a constitution. According to an article from The Guardian, a crossfire between rebel forces and Gaddafi loyalists was said to be the alleged cause of the dictator’s death late last year. The NTC, under pressure from the international community, has agreed to an investigation on the issue.
President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen agreed to step down after 33 years in power in November last year. He has agreed to cede authority to his deputy who will serve a two-year term. The threat of Al Queda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a terrorist group active in Yemen, however, continues to worry the West. Elections have already been held, but the nature of the said polls has been questionble given the lack of opposition towards the lone candidate. Only then incumbent Vice President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi ran. Yemen is considered to be the most impoverished Arab state. Millions are going hungry and according to Oxfam, it has the most grave water scarcity problems in the world.
A much more dire situation has presented itself in Syria where the current regime has shown no signs of retreating. A senior United Nations (UN) official has announced that the death toll in Syria was already over 7,500. The crackdown of President Bashar al-Assad’s security forces against rebels and protesters who do not approve of the current regime, has racked up the number of casualties in the country. Even with the recent defection of one of the regime’s ministers, the current government remains defiant.
The lack of stability in the newly freed regimes as well as escalating violence in Syria, has raised the question of whether external intervention is needed in order to neutralize the volatile situation. Such was the case in Iraq, where the United States army stayed long after Saddam Hussein was thrown out of office. The recent departure of American troops, however saw tensions in the country once against surface.
Dr. Renato de Castro from the International Studies Department states, however, that in the case of the Arab Spring, “the US simply did not have a direct role, it [Arab Spring] simply happened because of a number of developments that were indigenous in the Middle-East and you [also have the fact that] people simply [grew weary] of the authoritarian regimes.”
The US troop withdrawal has ushered in a new chapter in the free Iraq. However, much like the renewed internal conflict in the Arab Spring countries, despite the toppling of oppressive leaders – in this case, the formal withdrawal of American troops –protracted tensions between Shi’a and Sunni have once again surfaced. The Shi’a and Sunni are the two biggest Islamic denominations in Iraq.
In the past, the Shi’a faction, which supports Nuri al-Maliki, the current prime minister, has experienced suppression and political incapacity under Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated government. BBC News reports state that the Sunnis are charging Al-Maliki to be victimizing Sunnis through the control of defense and interior ministries.
Foreign intervention as a solution
De Castro, however, is doubtful of the possibility that intervention would be beneficial in the Arab Spring countries. He says, “The realization in the US [is] that you [cannot] simply export democracy. So what they [the US] will do is watch, see if the developments are right, then simply intervene at the right time and at the right moment, that’s where I think intervention will be [an option].
In Syria, for example, the situation might’ve already gotten too out of out hand, De Castro believes. “What’s happening is Syria is not simply a case of democratization, it’s really a case of [an] ongoing humanitarian disaster wherein you have the regime using its massive fire power to suppress the [protests] of the Syrian people,” he explains.
He continues by saying that intervention will most likely occur through the basis of a UN Security Council resolution which was the case in Libya. The UN Security Council is charged with maintaining international peace and security among UN Member States.
According to Domingo, in any case of an intervention, it would need a coalition of states who will support the endeavor.
Domingo posits that in order for real change to happen, significant and genuine reforms must take place endogenously or within the country itself.
