A forthcoming crisis: Metro Manila, DLSU lay out plans for the “Big One”

Better be ready.

Based on a 2004 Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS), it has been over 357 years since the West Valley Fault shifted and shook Metro Manila in 1658. The study posits that the fault line moves every 400 to 600 years — which implies that the city is already due for another earthquake in the coming years.

In comparison, the recent 7.8-magnitude earthquake that claimed thousands of lives in Nepal was previously predicted by geoscientists, who claimed that the fault segment moves every 750 years. The last time it moved was in 1344 — just 671 years before it shook Nepal last April 25, 2015.

Various experts have been visualizing grim pictures of what may happen when the estimated 7.2-magnitude earthquake hits Metro Manila. The MMEIRS estimates that 40 percent of the residential buildings in Metro Manila would be partially or heavily damaged, and that the earthquake may cause approximately 34,000 deaths and 114,000 injuries. The study also mentioned an estimation of an additional 18,000 deaths caused by fire spreading after the earthquake.

The earthquake’s exact time and date of occurrence, however, remain unknown because of its indefinite 400 to 600 year movement cycle. Meanwhile, government agencies like the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) have been reiterating how important it is to be aware and take part in disseminating information about the earthquake.

On the West Valley Fault

The West Valley Fault is a 100-kilometer fault which is part of an active fault in the country called the Valley Fault System. It extends from Dingalan, Aurora and traverses various areas in Luzon such as Quezon City, Marikina, Makati, Pasig, Taguig, Muntinlupa, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna and Cavite.

In 2010, further studies on the West Valley Fault were conducted by a group of scientific agencies called the Collective Strengthening on Community Awareness on Natural Disasters (CSCAND), whose project was funded by the Australian Aid through the United Nations Development Programme.

Their study, called the Greater Metro Manila Risk Assessment Project Risk Analysis Project (GMMA-RAP), aimed to create maps which represent the possible hazards of the earthquake. It focused mostly on Metro Manila, but also included portions of Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna. There have also been several other studies conducted to increase awareness on the looming earthquake.

“Many are asking if Manila will really get affected if the West Valley Fault moves. Well, it will definitely have a great impact,” clarifies Manila Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (DRRMO) Operations Officer Alan Toledo in Filipino. “First of all, most of the places here [in Manila] are weak areas that are subject to soil subsidy and subsidence. This is where the most intense movements of the fault will be felt, considering that Manila is near the fault’s end.”

“There are also two scenarios of the earthquake: one at night or one during the day,” Toledo describes. “An earthquake during the night would be more severe, because there is practically zero visibility, total darkness.” He warns, “No electricity, no water… It’s more difficult during the night.”

Toledo mentions that should the earthquake happen, many of the buildings and structures around Manila would collapse. He states that bridges will be among the first to fall, naming six bridges in particular: MacArthur Bridge, Quezon Bridge, Jones Bridge, Dimasalang Bridge, Ayala Bridge, and Tepang Bridge.

Metro-wide preparations and initiatives

Toledo explains that in the event of a large earthquake scenario, the City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (CDRRM) would be the lead agency in charge of the contingency plan.

As of press time, other supporting agencies and institutions are the following:

• Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP)
• Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) Manila Fire District
• Manila Police District (MPD)
• City Engineer’s Office
• City School Divisions
• Department of Public Services
• Manila Department of Social Welfare (MDSW)
• Manila Traffic and Parking Bureau (MTPB)
• Manila Health Department (MHD)
• Government Hospitals in Manila
• Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)
• Caritas Manila
• International organizations like World Vision, Save the Children, Mercy Singapore, Tzu Chi Foundation, and many others

Toledo further explains that the Manila DRRMO’s flowchart of operations may further expand and branch out to several more institutions and agencies depending on the scope of the disaster. “This is still subject for improvement, so now I need someone to update me regularly on the things we could add to this,” he states. He explains, “This plan doesn’t stop here because there are several inputs coming from the ground, barangay level.”

Toledo affirms that the chances of the “Big One” happening are high. “One of the manifestations are [the incidents in] Nepal and Japan,” he points out. He also explains that similar to the incident in Nepal, earthquakes can occur more than once and may span for an indefinite number of days.

He states that, as such, there is a need for a contingency plan good for several days. “You need to have a plan if, for example, [the earthquake] lasts for five days. You need a contingency plan for five days; that’s for security.”

According to Toledo, the current contingency plan lasts for only three days. His team has already coordinated with various agencies and institutions like the funerals and Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) for disaster mortuaries, Department of Health (DOH) for the allocation of 500 cadaver bags, MPD for the security maintenance, and many others.

Toledo explains that if the earthquake would reach a magnitude of 7.2 to 8, the AFP would take over the position and operation of the CDRRM. Different quadrants will be handled by different sectors of the AFP, such as the Philippine Navy for Manila, the Air Force for Pasay, and the Philippine Army for Quezon City.

Cities and regions have also been coordinating to help each other, especially in the event that one area will be unable to respond immediately after the earthquake. Manila DRRMO Emergency Medical Technician Melvin Reyes expounds that there should be inter-coordination between different regions, and not just focus on their individual regions. He questions, “If Manila gets devastated, how will we function?”

Recently, a group of web developers called Instigators created a website called Project Tremors, an online tool which can calculate how far one’s current location is from the West Valley Fault. Lasallian alumnus and Project Tremors Developer Dominic Tuazon (BS-INSYS, ‘14) shares that the project came to be because of his frustration with trying to understand the Valley Fault System Atlas created by PHIVOLCS.

Links to the Valley Fault System Atlas: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7

As previously reported by The LaSallian, Tuazon said that people might have had the same reaction with the Valley Fault System Atlas, so he decided to create a simpler version of it with his team.

These and many other initiatives are currently circulating to help prepare Metro Manila and its residents for the “Big One.”

How prepared is DLSU?

“Since there is no way to predict when an earthquake is going to happen, our overall goal is to minimize its impact [to] the University and its stakeholders. All our structures and safety systems are regularly checked if they are compliant with existing government regulations,” expresses Ricardo Louis L. Flores, Coordinator for Special Projects under DLSU’s Office of the Vice President for Administration.

Flores also shares that the University regularly conducts emergency drills and information campaigns to educate the community on what to do before and after an earthquake.

Based on a November 2013 article by The LaSallian, Manila City Hall’s DLSU Inspector Engr. Romero Estipona echoed that the DLSU campus has no indication of being structurally weak. Most issues encountered by his team were minor damages like cracks, which are easily patched by DLSU’s maintenance.

On July 30, 2015, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) is set to hold a metro-wide earthquake drill, which DLSU is set to participate in. Other representatives from schools, hospitals, non-government organizations, and private commercial buildings will also be part of the drill.

For people who would get stranded, Flores assures that the University will have food provisions on standby. Currently, his team is looking to expand its emergency response organization to include students, personnel, faculty, and other affiliates who are interested in helping out. “The revitalized group will act as the first responders not just for earthquakes but [also for] different emergency situations,” he elaborates.

Preparing for an earthquake can be complicated, because a lot of variables such as type, intensity, magnitude, and epicenter affect its overall impact on structures, shares Flores. He says, “[However], as earlier mentioned, the important aspect to look at is that the University is compliant with building and structural standards imposed by the government.”

He further mentions some of the dangers that the Lasallian community must be aware of during an earthquake. Among these are fire, liquefaction, structure collapse, and tsunami. “Panic-stricken individuals who do not know what to do after an earthquake can also be considered hazardous,” he quips.

See the predicted locations and extent of building damage, liquefaction risk, and fire spread in cities and campuses here.

Flores expresses that all places in the campus that are open to the community are generally considered safe. However, he says that since there is no definite way to predict an earthquake and its impact, it is still best to Drop, Cover and Hold on when the ground starts to shake. “Falling objects and debris, shattered glass, and large furniture should also be avoided,” he advises.

Although the DLSU campus is generally considered safe, Toledo claims that the University is yet to provide its complete structure plan to Manila DRRMO so that they can integrate it to their disaster plan. “For example, if DLSU will have problems with evacuation, at least we can talk about it [through the structure plan]. We can also talk to the head of the local government office about the possibility of a tsunami arriving due to the movement of the West Valley Fault,” he explains.

“Our problem is that we can’t contact every institution all at once,” Toledo describes. “We can only accommodate whoever is willing to take the initiative to share with us their structure plan. We have 896 barangays, which make it more difficult to manage.”

Currently, Manila DRRMO and the NDRRMC in general are constantly updating the disaster plan for Metro Manila and its surrounding provinces. They are urging various offices and institutions to submit their plans or proposals so that they may integrate it with the overall disaster plan in time for the earthquake.