In 2024, the Philippines was battered by a series of typhoons, with as many as six striking the country over a span of 30 days. The frequency of severe weather events in a brief timeframe raises the question of whether climate change significantly contributes to these intensifying weather patterns.
The status quo gone south
A common misunderstanding about the current weather patterns is that climate change leads to an increase in the frequency of typhoons. Dr. Gerry Bagtasa (BSPHY, ‘03), a meteorology professor from the University of the Philippines – Diliman, clarifies that less tropical cyclones are expected with warming temperatures. Despite an average of 20 tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility annually, this figure, as he points out, has remained virtually the same for the past 70 years.
Bagtasa identifies both climate change and natural swings as reasons for the sharp increase in storm occurrences. The westward shift of tropical cyclone trajectories has been attributed to the warming of oceans southwest of the Philippines, particularly near Papua New Guinea and Indonesia. While natural, it is also exacerbated by the effects of global warming.
The warming temperatures in these oceans create a high-pressure system near such regions, drawing cyclones closer to them. This natural shift has created a “perfect storm,” leading to more frequent and intense seasonal typhoons. Bagtasa explains that rising global temperatures feed cyclones as they are energized by water evaporation. More storms develop as the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere increases.
The hazards of global warming have heightened risk for provinces that were previously not susceptible to typhoons. Bagtasa reveals that tropical cyclone occurrences in northern Mindanao and southern Visayas have increased twofold in the past decade. This is unlike Batanes, which has constantly been struck by strong typhoons. Native Ivatans have adapted over time through the design of their now-famous houses, which are built with thick limestone walls and cogon grass roofs as protection against the strong winds of typhoons.
However, Bagtasa argues that the lack of “collective memory of what even a tropical cyclone looks like” has jeopardized the preparedness of Filipinos in southern regions. Data from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council supports this notion, showing that Severe Tropical Storm Sendong in 2011, Super Typhoon Pablo in 2012, and Super Typhoon Odette in 2021—all of which made landfall over Mindanao in December of their respective years—were the Philippines’ deadliest typhoons of the last decade alongside Super Typhoon Yolanda in 2013.
As storms become more frequent in the country’s southern regions, long-term projections suggest fewer storms will be experienced in the northern areas, particularly Metro Manila. However, this trend may not be entirely positive. “Kung walang bagyo, half of our water [supply] would be gone,” Bagtasa remarks. He emphasizes that water from tropical storms accounts for 50 percent of Metro Manila’s water supply. While the professor predicts these impacts to be seen by 2040, ongoing population growth and urban expansion in Metro Manila could worsen the effects, leading to more people relying on a limited water supply.
(If there is no storm, half of our water supply would be gone.)
Building for the future
As climate change continues to worsen extreme weather events, there is a growing need to build more resilient infrastructure in the country. Bagtasa recommends investing in modern flood control systems to reduce the impact of heavy rainfall, especially in urban areas. For instance, Japan utilizes underground water storage. “[It is like a basement that reaches down [to] basement six or seven…the water [will be channeled] toward that underground facility. It can store water…and eventually, they pump that out,” Bagtasa explains. However, while similar proposals have been made for Metro Manila, there has been slow progress due to obstacles in cost and prioritization.
Effective science communication is also a vital component in making sure people can appropriately respond to climate risks. Although the Philippines has strong weather forecasting abilities, the challenge lies in ensuring that the information is properly understood by the public. “The forecast is there, [but the] question is: naiintindihan ba siya ng lahat?”
(The forecast is there, but the question is: does everyone understand it?)
Moreover, Bagtasa also expresses that language barriers remain a pressing concern in informing the public about weather forecasts. “[If you go to the website of] PAGASA, it is in English. Hindi naman lahat [nakakaintindi] ng English,” he reasons, urging that forecasts be communicated to audiences by making it more relatable to them.
(If you go to the website of PAGASA, it is in English. Not everyone understands English.)
The devastating impacts of climate change, through the storms batting the country, will only continue to worsen if no immediate action is taken. The responsibility to fight back against these threats lies not only with environmental professionals but also with the general public. More than advanced infrastructure, clear communication with the people is crucial. Without sufficient awareness and preparation, even the greatest technological solutions will fall short.
This article was published in The LaSallian‘s March 2025 issue. To read more, visit bit.ly/TLSMarch2025.
